Preakness 2019 Predictions

1. Preakness Predictions 2019
2. Preakness 2019 Predictions Today
3. Preakness Predictions 2019
4. Predictions S 2019 Preakness

The 2019 Preakness Stakes seems like a wide-open race, with some elite ponies being pulled out of the list of entries. But that’s also what makes the upcoming race at the Pimlico Race Course a whole more interesting – and hopefully less controversial than the 2019 Kentucky Derby, which saw the technology of video replay spoiling the vibe at Churchill Downs. Preakness 2019 picks Vinnie Iyer: With the field and track shortened and Improbable in position to regain momentum, Baffert's horse is both the strong and safe bet. With the weather looking much. Baffert will seek a record-setting eighth Preakness victory Saturday with 5-2 morning line favorite Improbable, who will start from the No. 4 post in a field of 13 horses. War of Will, the second choice at 4-1, received the No. 1 post in Wednesday's draw.

Event: Preakness Stakes-G1, Pimlico

When: Race 13, Saturday, May 18, 2019

Age: 3-Year-Olds

Distance: 1 3/16-miles.

Surface: Dirt. Purse: $1.5 Million

2019 Preakness Stakes Picks

• War of Will
• Alwaysmining
• Owendale
• Improbable

Preakness Stakes Longshots:Bourbon War, Bodexpress

2019 Preakness Stakes Entries

No. Horse (ML Odds) Jockey Trainer

1. War of Will (4-1) T. Gafflione, M. Casse

2. Bourbon War (12-1) I. Ortiz, M. Hennig

3. Warrior’s Charge (12-1) J. Castellano, B. Cox

4. Improbable (5/2) M. Smith, B. Baffert

5. Owendale (10-1) F. Geroux, B. Cox

6. Market King (30-1) J. Court, W. Lukas

7. Alwaysmining (8-1) D. Centeno, K. Rubley

8. Signalman (30-1) B. Hernandez, K. McPeek

9. Bodexpress (20-1) J. Velazquez, G. Delgado

10. Everfast (50-1) J. Rosario, D. Romans

11. Laughing Fox (20-1) R. Santana Jr, S. Asmussen

12. Anothertwistafate (6-1) J. Ortiz, B. Wright

13. Win Win Win (15-1) J. Pimental, M. Trombetta

2019 Preakness Stakes Analysis

War of Will looks like the horse to beat in the 144th running of the Preakness Stakes-G1 at Pimlico this Saturday, but he wasn’t rated highly enough to be the morning-line favorite. That honor went to Improbable, which is fine with us. We think War of Will is the better horse.

Unless you’ve been living on another planet, you already know War of Will took the worst of it in the Kentucky Derby-G1 a few weeks ago, but we expected him to come up short in that race regardless, and he did.

War of Will broke like a bullet in the Kentucky Derby and was strangled inside behind the front runners for most of the race before coming off the rail midway through the final turn and trying to make himself some room. And just when he thought he’d found some room in late turn, front running winner Maximum Security (who was later disqualified), drifted out into his path. That caused War of Will to steady and lose a little momentum, but he quickly regained his composure and drew up alongside Maximum Security. War of Will took his best shot at Maximum Security and ran out of gas late, fading to finish eighth (placed seventh).

War of Will was a short horse for the Derby, and both trainer Mark Casse and jockey Tyler Gaffalione knew it, which was probably part of the reason why they didn’t lodge a claim of foul in the Derby. War of Will figured to run out of air after taking a bad step out of the gate and getting nothing out of his previous race in the Louisiana Derby-G1, but he should be fit and ready to roll now.

We’re expecting War of Will to regain the form he showed before the Louisiana Derby when he won both the LeComte-G2 and Risen Star Stakes-G2 from just off the pace. A big, strong, athletic horse, War of Will was impressive in both those races, and a similar effort is expected in Saturday’s Preakness. He drew the rail for the Preakness, just as he did in the Kentucky Derby, but the field is much smaller for the Preakness, and he should be able to find room this time. And that’s only if he doesn’t make the lead by himself, which he could very well do. He’s also both fast, and game.

Improbable is the morning-line favorite based on the strength of his fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, where he was only beaten 3 ¼-lengths as the favorite, but he also had every shot at winning that race and seemed to hang late for the second time in a row. In his race previous to the Kentucky Derby, the Arkansas Derby-G1, he had every shot at beating Omaha Beach and couldn’t get by that one.

Improbable’s trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness seven times. He’s tied with R. W. Walden for most victories in this race, so he knows how to win it. But he also said that the secret to winning the Preakness was bringing the best horse. In this case, we don’t think he has the best horse.

This year’s Kentucky Derby was probably tougher than it looked, but Improbable still seemed to lack a late punch, and he might not even want to run the mile and three-sixteenths of the Preakness. He does, however, get a rider switch from Irad Ortiz Jr. to Mike Smith, who won the Preakness and the Triple Crown last year aboard Justify.

Ortiz moves back to Bourbon War for the Preakness, and he’ll need to find the race he ran in the Fountain of Youth Stakes-G2, finishing a strong second beaten three-quarters of a length by Kentucky Derby third-place (placed second) finisher Code of Honor. Bourbon War came back to run a lackluster fourth behind Maximum Security after letting Maximum Security set a snail’s pace under no pressure, but Code of Honor didn’t fare much better in the same race. Bourbon War fits with this bunch if he wants to run this far. He also gets blinkers on, which should have him closer to the leaders than usual.

The most notable rider switch in this year’s Preakness belongs to maiden Bodexpress, who gets a switch from Chris Landeros to Hall of Famer John Velazquez after finishing a troubled 14th in the Kentucky Derby. He was about done by the time he felt the aftereffects of the drifting out Maximum Security in the Derby, but he did finish second to that one in the Florida Derby-G1 after tracking a slow pace. He also defeated both Bourbon War and Code of Honor in the Florida Derby. Bodexpress might be this year’s Preakness sleeper on the rider switch.

The most interesting horse in this year’s Preakness is Alwaysmining, who comes into the race on a six-race winning streak, the last five of which have been minor stakes at Laurel. He had a trainer switch to Kelly Rubley as a 2-year-old and went on his streak one race later after a seventh-place finish over yielding turf in the $100,000 Laurel Futurity.

In the third race of his win streak, Alwaysmining defeated fellow Preakness entrant Win Win Win, who was tenth (placed ninth) in the Kentucky Derby. His best numbers put him close with these, and he doesn’t need the lead to win. He also likes to be ridden. When you watch his replays, the more enthusiasm regular jockey Daniel Centeno puts into his ride, the faster this horse goes, and he recently worked a bullet. He’ll now get his class test.

Rounding out the 2019 Preakness field are Warrior’s Charge, Owendale, Signalman, Everfast, Market King, Laughing Fox, Anothertwistafate and Win Win Win.

Warrior’s Charge has won two in a row at Oaklawn Park including a Maiden Special Weight and an N1X allowance going 1 1/16-miles, recording a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in the latter. He’s another who is close on numbers and now gets a class test. Top jockey Javier Castellano takes over in the saddle from Florent Geroux, who sticks with Owendale after riding that one to victory in the Lexington Stakes-G3. Owendale runs best rallying from back in the pack, and he would not be a surprise in here if a fast and contested pace develops, which it very well could.

Anothertwistafate finished second in the Lexington Stakes, but his trouble in that race didn’t appear to be as bad as some are making it out to be. We thought he ran exceptionally well when beaten a neck in the Sunland Derby-G3 two starts ago after being forced to wait, but he actually had less trouble in the Lexington and just didn’t look like the same horse we saw at Sunland.

Laughing Fox was beaten 7 3/4-lengths in the Arkansas Derby-G1 by Omaha Beach and was 6 3/4-lengths behind Improbable in that race. He came back to win a minor stakes at Oaklawn in his last going 1 1/8-miles, but he looks like a lower Preakness superfecta rung horse here at best. The same could be said for Win Win Win, who really had no excuse when finishing tenth in the Kentucky Derby. Signalman was third behind Win Win Win in the Bluegrass Stakes-G2 in his last start and also looks a notch below the best in this year’s Preakness. A fast pace would help his chances.

Market King finished eleventh beaten 37 ¼-lengths in the Bluegrass Stakes after being close early. He looks overmatched in here, as does Everfast, who was beaten 10 ¼-lengths in the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs in his last start and ninth beaten 15 lengths in the Florida Derby two starts ago.

This year’s Preakness Stakes sets up with War of Will, Warrior’s Charge and Alwaysmining on or near the lead followed closely by Improbable, Anothertwisafate, Bodexpress, and Market King, with Signalman, Bourbon War, Owendale, Laughing Fox, Win Win Win and Everfast back early. Bourbon War could be closer than usual with blinkers on

War of Will looks like the class speed of the race and should take care of the other pace players. He’ll then have to turn back Improbable, Alwaysmining and Bodexpress and save enough to hold off Bourbon War and Owendale. We think he’ll do just that.

War of Will, to win.

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In-Season Tracks

The 2019 Preakness Stakes takes place on Saturday, May 18th at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. This will be the 144th running of the Preakness Stakes, and it serves as the second leg of the Triple Crown, in between the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.

While it’s usually a smaller field, this year’s Preakness sees 13 horses competing to win Saturday. Many trainers do not run their horses on only two weeks’ rest, which would be the case for any horse that ran in the Kentucky Derby.

2019 Preakness Betting Odds Analysis

Only four of the 13 horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago are entered to also run in the Preakness Stakes. That means that more than two-thirds of the field will be consisting of horses that did not run in the Kentucky Derby for many different reasons, including lack of points.

Maximum Security, who won the Kentucky Derby but was disqualified, will to sit out the Preakness Stakes. Country House won at 65-1 odds, but there will be no Triple Crown winner in 2019 as his connections have decided to forego this race as well. In fact, all three horses that hit the board in the Kentucky Derby won’t be racing in the Preakness as Code of Honor and Tacitus are also sitting.

Of the four Kentucky Derby horses running this weekend, Improbable had the best finish (4th). As a result, he is the favorite at 5/2 odds. Next in line is War of Will (4/1), which is the horse that was impeded by Maximum Security and had to pull up, winding up in seventh place. Win Win Win (15/1) was ninth, while Bodexpress (20/1) was close in the early stages before pulling up in the final quarter mile.

Win, Place, Show & Exotics Predictions

Win: No. 3 Warrior’s Charge (12/1)

The Preakness Stakes has been won recently mostly by horses who are on the lead or only a few lengths off the pacesetter in the early stages. And Warrior’s Charge used to be a closer, but after a couple of disappointing third-place finishes, up-and-coming trainer Brad Cox decided to switch tactics. It has proved to be a brilliant move, and I also like the fact that rider Javier Castellano is the second-leading jockey in North American.

Warrior’s Charge has won his last two races since becoming a speed horse and a pacesetter. He posted a then-career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure in his first race after the switch, up from 87 in his previous race. Four weeks later when again setting the pace, he improved to a 108 figure. To compare, favorite Improbable had 107, 108 and 109 speed figures in his last three races, respectively, so Warrior’s Charge is in his class.

This is an improving horse that should be the pacesetter again in the Preakness Stakes, and I think he has the goods to hold off every other horse in the field. The No. 3 post will help make his path to the lead an easy one in the early stages. His ownership team clearly loves his chances as they put up a $150,000 supplemental fee just to get into this race. That’s a fact that cannot be overlooked here.

Place: No. 5 Owendale (10/1)

Owendale is trained by up-and-comer Brad Cox. He won two of his first three races around two turns, but then finished a disappointing eighth in the Risen Star Stakes in February. His connections believed he needed a break after that performance and some training, and it paid big dividends.

Indeed, Owendale returned at the Lexington Stakes last month and put in a huge rally while going from eighth to first on the far turn. He went from 3 1/2 lenghts back to two lengths ahead at the wire. He finishes ahead of fellow Preakness contender Anothertwistafate.

Preakness Predictions 2019

A steadily improving horse, Owendale posted his career best Equibase Speed Figure of 106 in that win in the Lexington Stakes. He went on to post the best five-furlong workout of 37 horses last week in 59.2 seconds to show that he is in great physical shape. While I think he may be the best horse in the field, I don’t love the fact that he likes to come off from well off the pace. I think he’ll come up just short behind Warrior’s Charge.

Show: No. 4 Improbable (5/2)

Improbable was my pick to win the Kentucky Derby. He came up short, but not too many people had Country House or Code of Honor, who finished first and second. I did have Tacitus in the show position, which is exactly where he finished. And Improbable ran another good race to finish fourth.

The reason I’m not picking Improbable to win the Preakness is because he just doesn’t seem to have that extra gear to pass horses down the stretch. He’s just been content to finish in second place. He lost to two great horses in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby in Omaha Beach and Long Range Toddy. He lost to both basically by a neck.

Preakness 2019 Predictions Today

Even though he doesn’t seem to want to win, I can’t leave Improbable off the board. He is the best of the Kentucky Derby horses who are competing this week. And his Equibase Speed Figures of 109, 108 and 107 in his last three races speak for themselves. He will be a factor, especially now that he has Mike Smith in the saddle. Smith has teamed up with trainer Bob Baffert to win four of the last five Triple Crown races.

4th: No. 7 Alwaysmining (8/1)

This local legend has now won six straight races at Laurel, and he has been dominating the competition in the process. Bettors in Maryland always seem to fall for a local horse every year, only to be disappointed. But I think Alwaysmining has a legitimate shot to hit the board. Leave him off your exotics at your own risk.

I also like the running style of Alwaysmining, who wants to be at or near the lead. He’ll be battling with Warrior’s Charge and War of Will up front in the early going. Impressively, he has produced 109 and 104 Equibase Speed Figures in his last two races, which is why he has a real shot. It puts him in the class of Improbable, Warrior’s Charge and Owendale, which are my top three picks.

In his first five races during this six-race winning streak, Alwaysmining led from start to finish. But in his most recent race, he was third in the early stages, meaning he may not be a need-the-lead type. I was close to picking him to finish top three, but since no horse who has won some of the stakes races he has on the Maryland circuit has performed well in the Preakness, I’m hesitantly picking him fourth here.

Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta Picks:

Preakness Predictions 2019

Exacta Box: 3, 4, 5, 7 ($2 exacta box costs $24)

Trifecta Box: 3, 4, 5, 7 ($2 trifecta box costs $48)

Predictions S 2019 Preakness

Superfecta Box: 3, 4, 5, 7 ($1 superfecta box costs $24)

2019 Preakness Stakes Odds & Posts Positions