Roulette Biased
- Our journey into addressing this topic should first begin with whether biased Roulette wheels are a myth or reality in 2019 and the probability of them being likely or unlikely to exist in the future. There are wildly reported instances in history where players have taken advantage of casinos that had unknowingly used biased Roulette wheels. However, examples of players winning big after.
- A Biased Roulette Wheel is one that possesses a mechanical flaw that allows a particular number to come up an average of every 20 or 30 spins. With the likeliness of one particular number coming up you can bet on that number each spin and come out ahead of the house in the long run.
“Biased roulette wheel” is a term identifying any wheel that gives results that are different than those expected by chance. There are two ways this might occur, either the casino can rig a wheel to give non-random results or a wheel can have imperfections that lead to biased results.
Roulette Biased Wheel
This the exact method used by Gonzalo García Pelayo and his family, to spot biased roulette wheels and win millions from Brick and Mortar Casinos. Unfortunately it can not be applied to RNG online roulette, but it can be applied in online casinos offering live dealer roulette.
How to spot biased wheels
In order to spot a possible wheel bias, since we don’t own them to make physical measures, we have to recur to statistical analysis of its behavior, and here we really have to use Mathematics.
It is necessary to investigate if a roulette wheel does have a behavior which deviates from the expected for a perfect machine, and in order to achieve this we have to know first how would this machine work perfectly. For this purpose I created the “positive” concept. If after 36 spins a number comes out once, there won’t be any positive nor negative. If it comes out twice, we have a positive (+1), if it appears three times, we have two positives (+2), etc. If it doesn’t show at all, then we have a negative (-1). We base this on the accounting for the actual financial payout, not its real probability which is to come out once every 37 spins.
How many positives a number can have after a certain amount of spins at a perfectly balanced wheel? Or rephrasing the same –and this question is valid for the game and many other aspects-: What are the limits of pure random luck?
I built a computer software which emulated a perfectly random game, this means, without any bias, and I ran millions of spins on it. I deducted I’d need at least 2,000 separated trials per each numerical segment considered, being these segments going in an augmentation at a rate of 100-spin intervals. For instance, for the 1,000 spins segment, I had to process 2 million samples, and likewise for every new block of numbers, there was the need to execute as many tests as the result of the multiplication of said block by 2,000 needed trials.
Biased wheel data analysis
Let’s analyze the tables above with four different amounts of spin samples.
If we have to use a 300-spin length sampling, we can observe the sum of “positives” (times above the expected considering 36-spin cycles) for numbers is around +37. Let’s turn it the other way around; if there have been 300 spins, each numbers has to have been spun 300/36 = 8.33 in order to be breaking even. This means those which have been spun 8 times are losing a little, and those which have showed 9 times are winning something. If a number has appeared 14 times it is clear it has 14-8.33 = 5.67 which we will express in an abbreviated form like +5. Let’s suppose the exact same situation has occurred for 6 other numbers also, they all will make a total sum of 5.67 + 5.67 + 5.67 + 5.67 + 5.67 + 5.67+ 5.67 = 39.69. as no other number has been spun over 9 times, then we say the amount of total positives at this table at 300 spins is +39. We can declare the table is a bit above the “randomly expected “ (+37) yet in addition it is far from the “soft limit” which is located at +46.
What is the “Soft Limit”? It is the maximum reached by 95% of those 2,000 trials. Only 5% of trials went over this amount of positives, then we can affirm it is hard to pass the soft limit, as this only happens at this 5% of instances by pure random luck at an wheel without any bias.
What is the “Hard Limit”? It is the one which has only happened once at these 2,000 trials. Therefore it is something belonging to a probability factor of 1 in 2,000, a tiny 0.05% to be spun by pure “random luck”, which finds here the limit we were looking for.
Previous example with its 39 positives doesn’t unveil anything about this particular table. Some numbers have appeared more than others but not in a significant enough scenario. If would be significant shall the sum of the positives at this table were +50, which albeit not being one 100% certain, it does places the table past the Soft Limit and makes us think this wheel points to the right direction. The true wonder would, be if its positives get to sum +64, which would clearly state this table as having a very strong tendency, which we can consider like a savings account for us to take the money from. When doing a 300-spin sample I haven’t accounted for such a deviation. We need to collect more spins for statistics, as the best wheel we have found (we call them “Tables type A”) have to go with this amount of spins at a +39 approximately. Please allow me to make a pause in our walk to further explaining what is a “Table type A”.
Different types of statistics Tables
If we have reliable statistics, gathered from what we know is a single table after 5,000 spins, we have to know, by looking up at chart above, that the regular outcome is for total positives to go around +109, if they pass over +143 we can be in front of something interesting, and if they are above +192 we have in presence of an authentic bomb. This happened to our “Tables type A”, which by this time have left behind every doubt, as they have gone past –in average- with their +197, the mythical hard limit. So we have more than 99.95% degree of certainty this particular table has bias, and therefore, the expected is for those deviated numbers to continue their sustained deviation as they have been doing.
Most common wheels we found when scouting, “Tables type B”, were at +153 positives, and the worst ones, “Tables type C”, with some (but very little) bias, were already at +135, still within the boundaries of the Soft Limit.
We started our bias attack when the numbers which have been appearing the most at target Wheel do have passed the Soft Limit. By having 95% certainty of their bias, we thought it was worth risking remaining 5% (only once out of every 20 occasions) having the regular outcome of these attacks being the table “moving forward” and deviating in favor of those numbers while we were betting, till it passed by the “hard limit” which gave us absolute security (no wheel passed this hard limit and went back; unless it is manipulated, there is no way back from it). If the target wheel went back from SOFT limit -as we mentioned, this can happen 1 out of every 20 times-, we simply stopped betting on it and its losses were compensated by the wins obtained from those which have been faithful to their spotted biases.
If we have recorded 10,000 spins from a single table (this record could be at intervals, made at several days, several different sessions, without it being an impediment for going off the table a half-hour to have diner, but we must always be 100% certain they are from the same table, which hasn’t been replaced in any of its elements; reason for which we have to take note of any identifiable physical traits which ensure us proper identification of this particular wheel), with this record we already have a clear definition from what this machine can offer us. Even if its quality for the effect of our attack is reduced (“Table type C”) for the purpose of eligibility it should have gone past “Soft Limit” already (+174) and must be at least at +195. If it doesn’t has reached these numbers, it is better to just forget about what this table has to offer, as there is little to no advantage to be derived from it.
When a random table reaches a 30,000-spin sample, its average and soft limit start to descend and it it expected to continue under this fashion until the point on which, after many spins analyzed, there won’t be any number with “positives” remaining, as house advantage has imposed over all of them and none achieves appearing above the expected when averaged against 1 per every 36 spins, as its actual probability is to make it once per every 37 spins and that “flagstone” has been imposed over them in a definitive way. But is the table has Bias, some number would have been “catapulted” or “rocketed” and they will continue going upwards. Even at a “Table type C” it would have passed above the hardest limit, guaranteeing its advantage, even if a small one. IF the table has any quality and it is a “Table type A”, it sails now at an stratospherically high +966 which is impossible to find at a truly unbiased level wheel which has its “random maximum” (by pure luck) placed at a hard limit of only +294.
They mainly took raw data and check their soft and hard limit to make a decision to bet.You decide for how much sample spins u want to calculate hard and soft limit for? Let’s say we want to calculate it for 500 spins sample.You employ you computer’s pseudo random number generator to generate a random sequence of numbers from 0 to 36 inclusive 500 times.
So now you have 500 random number sequence.
You repeat this procedure 2000 times (as done by Mr. Pelayo), so now u have 2000 different sequences of 500 random numbers each
Then you calculate true probability for each number using 500/37 or 500/36 (as done by Mr. Pelayo, I still don’t know why would he do that?)
500/37=13.51351351351351
Then you count number of occurrences of each number in you 2000 sequences of 500 numbers each. In each set of 500 random numbers if a number appears more than 13 times it belongs to set of “positives”. You subtract 13.51351351351351 from the occurrence of number and you get +(something) for each such number.
You then add all “positives” of all numbers which have appeared more than 13 times in each set of 500 random numbers and you get a +(something) value for each set.
Repeating above procedure for remaining 1999 sequences. You will have 2000 different +positive values for each set of 500 random numbers.
Now if any positive value or a value greater than it among these 2000 positives appears only 5% of the time in this group , that is your soft limit. If it appears only 0.05% of time , that positive value is your hard limit.
Part 2: Biased wheel Betting method
Part 3: Gonzalo García Pelayo roulette strategy explained and actual data example from Pelayo.
[Spanish version from: Grupojoker.com Translation: Victor]
Roulette is a game that has become synonymous with casinos. Whenever people think of the table games within a casino, roulette is definitely one of the first that comes to mind. It conjures up imagery of people gathered around a table, placing their bets on their favoured colour, number or group of numbers, and then waiting for the ball to be launched into the wheel by the croupier. The question is, are these roulette wheels ever biased, meaning certain numbers are more likely to come up than others?
It’s true that online roulette games can be considered as fair as possible, due to the fact that they utilise random number generators (RNGs) to determine their outcome. However, roulette wheels in land-based establishments and in live games online are much easier to tamper with. Here, we’re going to be asking the question if roulette wheels are biased, and if so, how can you play it without falling victim to such a wheel?
What Is Wheel Bias in Roulette and What Causes It?
When we talk about wheel bias, what are we speaking of? Well, wheel bias is basically when a specific set of numbers win more than they should do, thanks to defects within the wheel itself. Most players are well aware of wheel bias, and while there are still players that will analyse multiple spins and then just bet on whichever numbers appear the most, this isn’t quite as prevalent as it used to be. Modern roulette wheels are much better.
Countless reasons could be behind a roulette wheel being considered biased. A lot of it has to do with the construction of the wheel itself. Let’s say, for example, that a roulette wheel has the coloured plastic for each number glued on to the wheel. Over time and consistent use, that glue can lose a lot of its adhesion, resulting in a loosening of the coloured plastic. When a round of play begins and the ball hits those sections, it doesn’t bounce quite as much as it normally would. It is this that goes by the name of “deadening”, and that results in the ball landing in specific sections more often than others. That is biased against the other number sections where the glue hasn’t loosened over time.
Other things on roulette wheels that could cause bias include minor deficiencies like dents and scrapes, which send the ball into specific areas more so than a perfectly formed roulette wheel. Naturally, some players do look for these particular problems with wheels in a bid to exploit them to their own advantages. Manufacturing defects could have caused such bias in wheels, or general wear and tear over the years. It is not specifically something that is relative to older wheels, as newer wheels can have issues if they haven’t been constructed properly.
Obviously, the way to utilise this against a casino is to locate and attack the imperfections of the wheel. Man cannot create a completely perfect machine, with roulette wheels being created from wood and metal, so they will always be subject to that aforementioned wear and tear throughout their years of use. And land-based casinos employ humans to operate these wheels, which could add to the overall imperfection in the end.
Of course there is also the possibility that the wheel has been manufactured or modified to have specific imperfections to make a casino more likely to win. This is unlikely in regulated markets in the UK where fairness is independently regulated but it is certainly possible if playing roulette in unregulated markets or with non-licensed casinos.
Examples of Biased Roulette Wheel Scandals
It didn’t take long for some people to realise that roulette wheels could be utilised to their advantage, and several high-profile stories have come to light of such biased wheels being exploited.
The first of these, and probably the most famous story, is that of Joseph Jagger. In the late 1800s, Jagger managed to acquire a fortune when playing roulette at the Beaux-Arts Casino in Monte Carlo. Coming from his work as a miller in Yorkshire, England, Jagger visited the Monte Carlo casino in 1881 and experienced success from table to table. At that time, chests of gold were used as the bank for each different table, and Jagger managed to clean up, taking £7.5 million back home with him.
Media coverage of Jagger’s huge win in Monte Carlo was very sparse, as the casino did not wish for his success to get out for fear of others coming to imitate that triumph. Jagger had never played roulette prior to this moment and hadn’t even seen it played. But he studied a drawing of the wheel and he knew that no wheel ever spun perfectly. Utilising his knowledge of wheels, he studied various types of such, including those on trains, and went on to beat out the Beaux-Arts Casino.
We can even look towards a more recent circumstance of a huge win, thanks to wheel bias. In the 1990s, Gonzalo García-Pelayo Segovia, a Spanish citizen, went on to secure himself a welcome victory by playing roulette. He utilised similar efforts to Jagger in order to track the results of roulette wheels at the Casino de Madrid. By doing so, he managed to discover one wheel that had quite the bias, and he stuck with betting on this one to win himself more than €1 million over several days.
The casino discovered what Segovia was doing and tried to take legal action, but in the end, the courts ruled in his favour, as he did nothing wrong. Instead, the court decided that the casino was in the wrong for not maintaining its roulette wheels properly. A film was also made about Segovia’s success, entitled Winning Streak, which was released in 2012.
How Do Casinos and Wheel Makers Prevent Bias?
It is never good for an online casino to have to endure players exploiting biased roulette wheels. After all, they end up losing out on money this way, and casinos don’t really like to be on the losing end in such huge ways. How do casinos, and indeed wheel manufacturers, try to prevent wheel bias from occurring?
Well, a variety of methods have been brought into effect to try and stop wheel bias from occurring. Of course, from a legal standpoint, there’s little that a casino can do to halt it, which is why other methods have had to be brought into effect.
The first route that some British gambling venues took in the 1980s was to contact John Huxley to produce a roulette wheel that was sturdier. In that wheel, shallower number pockets and metal frets were incorporated, and it became known as the Starburst Wheel. The betterment came because wooden frets are quite notorious for becoming too loose and worn down. Metal frets are much sturdier, and casinos still utilise Starburst roulette wheels today.
Some casinos also feature electronic boards on roulette tables. These serve two different purposes – to display the last 10-20 results for players who utilise trend betting and record results so that the casino can spot any biased outcomes. Trend bettors will be more likely to continue playing at the casino with this being the case, while the data collected from previous results on electronic boards ensure a fair distribution of wheel spins. Should there be any discrepancy towards a certain number pocket, the wheel can be examined and rectified.
Finally, as a sort of addition on to the wheel examination, all casinos now regularly inspect their equipment. This ensures that everything is running smoothly and fairly. Roulette wheels will be fully checked over in a bid to spot any inconsistencies with the setup, with frets, number pockets, the wheel shaft and more coming under close scrutiny. While the Starburst wheel has made this job a lot easier, these can develop wear and tear through constant use. Therefore, the casino gains an extra level of protection over advantage gamblers this way.
Can You Still Take Advantage of Wheel Bias Today?
Roulette Bias
Due to the fact that gambling establishments have suffered at the hands of wheel bias players many times, they have taken action against such occurrences happening frequently. A casino looking to make money will follow all of the precautions mentioned above to ensure this doesn’t happen. Can it be said that roulette wheel bias has been completely eliminated altogether, though?
Well, it would be quite a naïve thought process to believe that there aren’t any biased roulette wheels left in the world. And even with upgraded, modern wheels, there’s the likelihood that some establishments still utilise biased wheels. Potentially even without having really realised that they’re biased yet.
Is it worth a player seeking these wheels out, though? Well, considering the number of Starburst wheels and precautions that casinos go through, it’s definitely like trying to seek out a needle in a haystack. Should someone be dominating the roulette sector these days by using wheel bias in their favour, they’ve managed to get by without being spotted. In today’s gambling world, that’s quite the remarkable feat to achieve, as security and so on at these gambling establishments is high. Plus, reports of wheel bias players taking advantage of casinos have been pretty much non-existent since Gonzalo García-Pelayo Segovia in the 90s.
Roulette Bias Wheel
While it may still be possible to participate in wheel bias gameplay, it is a quite inefficient way of participating in roulette today. With all that casinos do to ensure this doesn’t take place, you would be much better finding a different strategy to employ when partaking in roulette at a land-based establishment.
With wheel bias requiring so much patience, analysing and skill, it isn’t the sort of quick fix that many players want from gambling. Granted, there are those that may be able to handle it, but for the average player, it’s not something that you’d likely to want to involve yourself in.
To Conclude
While it is true that wheel bias is quite a simple concept to figure out in your head, it’s not so easy to put into practice. It may seem simple to just track roulette wheel spins and the results of each round to seek out any biased results, running the mathematics and going through the numbers isn’t quite as simple.
Due to the current circumstances though, roulette wheel biased gameplay is much harder to participate in. While some casinos have lost a lot of money in the past to skilled players, they have since taken up a variety of prevention methods to do their best at stopping this form of roulette gameplay from taking place.
Roulette Biased
Thanks to the fact that John Huxley’s Starburst wheel has been created and put to use in most land-based casinos, the door has almost completely been closed on this type of bias. When you throw equipment inspections into this and the recording of results from games, any possible player edge that this form of gameplay may have once brought is significantly diminished.